By Bantii Qixxeessaa
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In recent months, both the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and the Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC) have publicly called for the formation of a transitional government in Oromia. Similarly, according to some reports, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) made a transitional arrangement in Oromia the centerpiece of its proposal during the 2023 peace talks with the Ethiopian government in Zanzibar source: Curate Oromia. On the surface, this convergence may appear to reflect growing unity across armed and nonviolent factions. Yet beneath this shared demand lies a troubling lack of consensus, on both the purpose of the transition and the roadmap that should follow. |
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The core question, transition to what, and to where?,
remains unanswered. Some vaguely suggest federal reform, others whisper
independence, and still others offer no endgame at all. Without a clearly
articulated destination, the transitional government proposal risks becoming
another hollow container, susceptible to co-optation, devoid of direction, and
echoing the failures of 2018.
This moment is a painful déjà vu for the Oromo people. Less
than seven years ago, many placed their trust in the ascendant Abiy Ahmed
government. That trust was based not on a negotiated agenda or mutual
commitments, but on verbal assurances and personal endorsements, such as those
offered by Jawar Mohammed. The result? Disillusionment, repression, and
betrayal. Today’s transitional government advocates risk repeating that same
error: promising change without clarity, process without purpose.
The practical viability of a regional transitional
government also deserves scrutiny. Oromia is a regional state within the
Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia. How, then, can one form a transitional
government at the subnational level while the federal government, retaining
control over the military, judiciary, and treasury, remains intact? Such an
arrangement is either politically unserious or legally incoherent. If a genuine
transition is needed, why are Oromo political forces reluctant to demand it at
the federal level? Why this selective courage, loud in opposition to local
structures, but silent in the face of central authority?
Even more concerning is the absence of foundational
principles in negotiations and political platforms. In both the April and
November 2023 peace talks in Tanzania, sources confirm that neither
independence nor Article 39, the constitutional provision affirming nations’
right to self-determination, was invoked by the OLA. For an armed movement
rooted in anti-colonial resistance and the dream of an independent Oromia, such
omissions are not merely strategic oversights, they signal a loss of
ideological compass.
This ambiguity is not unique to armed actors. Civil
political groups like the OLF and OFC have also distanced themselves from
invoking Article 39. While some may argue that secession is politically
impractical, avoiding even symbolic gestures of self-determination weakens the
moral force of the Oromo cause and confuses allies, supporters, and observers
alike.
Furthermore, Oromo organizations speak of self-determination
with fire when addressing their base, at rallies, commemorations, and in
cultural forums, but that rhetoric fades in national and international arenas.
This dual messaging creates a credibility gap, reflecting not strategic
discretion but a crisis of conviction.
In contrast, successful liberation movements, from Eritrea
to South Sudan to Kosovo, began by articulating a clear end-state and aligning
their strategies accordingly. They did not let transitional arrangements
distract them from core goals or devolve into squabbles over interim authority.
Today, Oromo leaders must ask: Are we fighting for the people’s future or
simply for temporary political positioning?
Unless Oromo organizations collectively define their
political destination, and agree on a credible roadmap to reach it, the
transitional government debate will remain a symptom, not a solution. A symptom
of drift, fragmentation, and unhealed wounds from past betrayals. Only clarity
of vision and unity of purpose can turn this moment into a true transition,
rather than another tragic repetition.
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