O-Dispatch 19-C - Oromia Rising – Answering the Doubters: Rebutting the Top Arguments Against Demanding Independence Now

(Published as part of the “Oromia Rising: Essays on Freedom and the Future” series. Everyone is invited to contribute. Send your contributions to bantii.qixxeessaa@gmail.com.)

By Bantii Qixxeessaa

🎧 Listen to the Audio Version (11 minutes)

Liberation movements do not collapse because their goals are too bold, but because their leaders fail to articulate them clearly. Throughout our history, every time the Oromo people have stepped forward to demand their freedom, someone—often from within—has urged caution. “Now is not the time.” “We will scare off allies.” “Unity will be lost.” These objections may sound prudent, even patriotic. But history—our own and others’—shows they often lead to paralysis, betrayal, or worse. Liberation movements do not collapse because their goals are too bold, but because their leaders fail to articulate them clearly.

This piece addresses the most common objections to demanding Oromia’s independence now, offering decisive, historically grounded rebuttals and key lessons for the Oromo struggle. While I have previously examined some of these objections individually, a reader suggested I tackle as many as possible in a single document—and I have taken that advice to heart.

I will start with Objection #1 which goes “Why Raise the Independence Issue If It’s Already in Our Party Program?”

To this objection, I would argue that a written program holds no weight unless it is accompanied by a clear and public commitment.

Leaders who say “independence is in our platform, but we don’t talk about it openly” are either misleading the people or negotiating behind their backs. Who are they hiding the goal from? The Oromo people—or the global powers?

The public deserves honesty and a clear objective to rally around. When movements conceal their true goals, they erode trust and create openings for opportunists and internal fragmentation. This very failure has contributed to the defection of several former leaders to the Prosperity Party—figures such as Lencho Lata and Kajela Merdasa, to name just a few.

What is the lesson here? Political programs are meaningless without political courage. It takes more than writing down ideals, it requires the bravery to speak them aloud, the integrity to stand by them, and the conviction to act on them. Say what you truly believe. Rally the nation around that vision. Then work tirelessly to turn it into reality.

Objection #2 goes like this: “Now Is Not the Time”

However, history teaches that postponing clarity is how revolutions get hijacked. Let us look at our own experiences.

• In 1974, Ethiopia’s monarchy fell without a clear plan for the future. The Derg filled the vacuum with brutality.
• In 1991, the Derg fell, and Oromo groups like the OLF joined the transition in good faith. But lacking clarity and unity, they were sidelined as the TPLF imposed its will.
• In 2018, Oromo leaders again entered the political arena calling for reform. The result? Mass arrests, massacres, and the destruction of the hopes of “change from within.”

What lesson should we draw from these past experiences? Waiting for the “right time” often means waiting until it’s too late. Clarity brings strength. Delay invites defeat.

Objection #3 claims “Oromo Unity Will Be Harmed If We Raise Independence Now”

I say, To the contrary. True unity comes from clear principles—not vague slogans.

Movements that fear the truth divide themselves from within. Hiding our ultimate goal may preserve a surface-level alliance, but it invites co-optation, betrayal, and elite manipulation. Vague calls for “freedom” or “change” have been weaponized to suppress real demands. Let us look at a couple of examples.

• In Post-1991 Ethiopia, the TPLF co-opted Oromo elites with empty promises of “federalism,” then excluded them from real power.
• Another example would be, Mugabe of Zimbabwe who used slogans of “national unity” to marginalize ZAPU leaders.
• Bashir’s peace deals in Sudan were all designed to divide and conquer rebel movements.

It is clear from these examples the Lesson here is Real unity is built on truth and shared vision—not silence. Clarity guards against betrayal.

The fourth Objection raised goes like this:  “The International Community Won’t Support Us If We Say Independence” as if silence has ever won anyone international support.

Only strategy and coherence can win you international support.

Western powers are not morality police. They support movements that are organized, disciplined, and clear about their goals. They calculate risks, not feelings. Let us look at a few cases to drive this point home.

• Eritrea, for example, never wavered on independence, even when Western powers backed Ethiopia. After victory, it held a referendum and was recognized. It won international support through strategy and coherence among other things.
• In the same neighborhood, South Sudan Kept independence central to their strategy and all negotiations. As a result, when the people voted, 98% chose to succeed with Western support.
• Kosovo declared its independence goal clearly and early and worked hard at building diplomatic networks. Eventually, its independence was recognized by over 100 countries that did not support it previously.

What is the lesson for us here? It is that The West respects resolve, not hesitation. We should Make our case for independence and make it consistently. The international community will be compelled to listen and support.

There is a fifth objection that goes “Let’s First Remove Abiy’s Regime, Then Talk About Independence”.

But this very strategy has failed us—miserably and repeatedly In Oromo history. Remember 1974 and the fall of Haile Selassie, 1991 and the defeat of the Derg, and 2018 when the TPLF was ousted. Did any of these moments lead to outcomes favorable for the Oromo? No—they did not! Why?

Because, in Ethiopia, regime change without structural change leads to recycled tyranny. The empire persists under new names because no clear vision replaces it. Plenty of other examples abound. To mention but a few, in Egypt  in 2011, and in Sudan in 2019, dictators fell, but vague roadmaps led to military resurgence and crushed revolutions.

One lesson from these examples is that If we don’t define our goal now, once the current regime failed, others will define our future for us. Silence today weakens our position tomorrow.

Then there is Objection #6 which goes “We Can’t Focus on Independence and Fight the Regime at the Same Time” as if movements can’t walk and chew gum at the same time.

In fact, they must. Successful struggles combine vision, mobilization, and resistance all at the same time.

Vietnam Fought French and American forces at the same time that it was building grassroots governance. ANC in South Africa demanded majority rule, fought apartheid, and prepared for governance simultaneously. Closer to home, Eritrea, built schools and clinics in liberated zones while fighting a war and defeating the DERG but never dropped the independence demand.

The clear lesson here is that we don’t have to choose between vision and action, lasting victory requires both.

There are those whose objection (which I number as objection #7) goes like “Reform Is Still Possible Within Ethiopia” as if we have not tried to reform that empire. Repeatedly. And each time, we were betrayed. We carry the scars to prove it.

The Oromo groups that joined the transitional government in 1991, were quickly excluded from power and violently pushed out. In 2018, Oromo leaders embraced “Medemer” and postponed the independence question. Today, we count their graves. Other nations tried reform too:

• Eritrea was federated with Ethiopia in 1952. In 1962, the emperor unilaterally annexed it.
• South Sudan was granted autonomy in 1972. A decade later, it was revoked.
• Kosovo had self-rule in 1989 until Milosević crushed it.
• Bangladesh sought equal rights within Pakistan. The result was war and genocide.

What is the lesson here? The Oromo have tried reform. We were answered with bullets. Independence is not secession—it is self-rescue.

In Conclusion, I say, demand Defines Destiny.

The future will not be shaped by those who wait, whisper, or hedge. It will be shaped by those who declare their direction and walk it with resolve.

We are not reckless for demanding independence. We are responsible—for remembering the past, reading the present, and preparing for the future.

Oromia’s freedom is not a distraction. It is our moral anchor and strategic necessity.

Let us no longer silence ourselves to please those who have never stood with us. Let us no longer delay for a unity that never comes. Let us no longer hide what our people already know:

Independence is not a dream—it is a direction.

The only thing left is to walk it.