O-Dispatch #13 - A Credible Critique, a Missing Roadmap: What Ethiopia’s Opposition Must Do Next

 By Bantii Qixxeessaa

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On June 5, 2025, the Caucus of ten Ethiopian Opposition Parties issued a bold and timely statement denouncing the legal and political decay eroding Ethiopia’s so-called democratic foundations, structures that exist largely on paper and function more like a paper tiger than genuine institutions of accountability. Their primary targets were the National Dialogue Commission (NDC) and the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE), which they accused of systemic exclusion, partisanship, and unconstitutional overreach. What gives the statement weight is not only its substance, but also the fact that its key assertions are echoed and reinforced by a broad spectrum of regional and international analysts, legal scholars, and human rights observers.

Yet, while the critique is forceful and well-supported, the Caucus stops short of articulating a comprehensive alternative agenda. Without advancing a clear roadmap, its stance remains largely oppositional rather than transformational. A principled critique, while essential, must now give way to a proactive political strategy, one rooted in the right to self-determination.

National Dialogue or Managed Theater?

The Caucus argues that the NDC was established through a secretive, executive-driven process that excluded genuine opposition participation. This is no longer a contested view. A 2024 East African Review analysis confirmed that “major opposition political groups and various armed groups” were deliberately left out of early consultations. Realist Review characterized the NDC as a “public relations effort masquerading as dialogue,” suggesting the regime’s aim is to neutralize dissent through appearance rather than substance.

This perspective is affirmed by global and regional experts, who have consistently portrayed the NDC as a hollow exercise. With no mandate to make binding decisions, no inclusivity in its formation, and no international guarantees of neutrality, the Commission’s legitimacy is deeply compromised. The core message of the Caucus, that dialogue without representation is not dialogue at all,is firmly upheld by this growing body of international assessments.

NEBE: An Instrument of Control, Not Democracy

The Caucus’s indictment of the NEBE as partisan and structurally incapable of delivering free and fair elections is also strongly supported by international assessments. The African Union labeled the 2021 elections as “peaceful but not competitive,” while U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken explicitly stated they were “not free or fair for all Ethiopians.” The European Union, for its part, declined to send an observer mission, citing restrictions on press freedom and civil society participation.

These are not isolated warnings. Multiple observers, domestic and foreign, have questioned NEBE’s independence and operational integrity. They point to deep flaws in the electoral framework that render any upcoming elections suspect unless major structural reforms are undertaken. The Caucus’s call for halting electoral preparations until NEBE is restructured and legally guaranteed to be independent is both rational and urgent.

Institutional Capture and the Collapse of Rule of Law

The Caucus emphasizes that Ethiopia’s key state institutions have been co-opted by the ruling party, stripping them of independence and undermining democratic norms. This concern is echoed by global institutions such as the International Crisis Group, which warned that political repression and protracted conflict have “hollowed out” Ethiopia’s already fragile state apparatus. The Heinrich Böll Foundation has similarly cautioned that the centralization of dialogue processes and executive dominance risks closing off all meaningful avenues for reform.

This diagnosis is not only credible, it is conclusive. Ethiopia’s institutions are not neutral arbiters; they remain tools of executive will. Without institutional autonomy, there can be no genuine democratic revival. The Caucus is right to frame this as a foundational crisis that requires more than procedural correction; it demands structural realignment.

Constitutional Erosion and Legal Illegitimacy

While the Caucus stops short of explicitly accusing the government of using the NDC to alter Ethiopia’s multinational federal structure, its warning is unmistakable. By rejecting the NDC’s legitimacy, partisanship, and exclusionary nature, the Caucus implies that any constitutional reforms emerging from this body would lack legal validity.

Legal scholars widely agree. Ethiopia’s 1995 Constitution outlines a strict amendment process, as outlined in Articles 104 and 105. The NDC has no legal mandate to initiate or ratify constitutional changes. Article 9(1), which enshrines constitutional supremacy, would be flagrantly violated by attempts to push reforms through informal, ad hoc mechanisms.

Both African and international legal experts concur: bypassing the constitutional order not only undermines the rule of law, but it also accelerates state fragility and delegitimizes Ethiopia in the eyes of the international community. The Caucus’s implied alarm is thus well-founded and broadly affirmed.

From Reform to Self-Determination: A Strategic Pivot

For over two decades, opposition parties, particularly Oromo groups ,have invested in defending the federal system, seeking reform and inclusive governance. That effort has failed. Federalism has been functionally dismantled through legal overreach, repression, and militarization. Defensive strategies have reached their limit.

It is time for the opposition to pivot. The next strategic step is to assert the right to self-determination and demand a peaceful, internationally supervised referendum. This is not a call for chaos; it is a call for agency, legitimacy, and democratic renewal. In the face of authoritarian consolidation, passivity becomes complicity.

Such a move would also flip the strategic dynamic: instead of constantly defending what is being eroded, the opposition would put the regime on notice that continued centralization and illegality could lead to legal and democratic secession efforts. In the language of realpolitik, this is how one reclaims bargaining power.

Conclusion: From Critique to Consequence

The Caucus has issued a credible, timely, and internationally affirmed critique of Ethiopia’s democratic breakdown. But critique is no longer enough. The opposition must evolve into a force for principled action.

This means asserting the right to self-determination, through peaceful, democratic means, as a legitimate response to the collapse of the constitutional order. It also means advancing a coherent, inclusive roadmap for institutional reform and electoral legitimacy.

Ethiopia’s federation has collapsed in all but name. Article 39, the right to self-determination, remains untested but not obsolete. Now is the moment to activate that clause, not just as an escape from tyranny, but as a path to dignity, accountability, and sovereign choice. The call for a referendum is not about division; it is about a democratic reset.

The opposition must now choose: remain reactive, or lead with purpose. The time for ambiguity has passed. The time for self-determination has come.

Thank you!