O-Dispatch 19-H - The Oromo Struggle Is Not Merely Regime Change – Strategic Clarity for Enduring Liberation

(Published as part of the “Oromia Rising: Essays on Freedom and the Future” series. Everyone is invited to contribute. Send your contributions to bantii.qixxeessaa@gmail.com.)

By Gumaa Guddaa, MD

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Introduction The Oromo struggle for self-determination stands once again at a critical juncture. Amid growing resistance to the repressive nature of Ethiopia’s current regime, a concerning trend has emerged among Oromo activists: the belief that victory lies solely in toppling the ruling administration. While opposing state brutality is fully justified, reducing the Oromo cause to mere regime change risks repeating the historical failures of 1974, 1991, and 2018.

This article argues:

1. Centering Oromo political strategy on removing regimes instead of dismantling imperial structures is a strategic misstep.
2. Historical patterns show that regime change without structural transformation only recycles oppression.
3. The Oromo struggle must remain focused on independence and institution-building, regardless of who governs Ethiopia.

I. The Pitfall of Reducing the Struggle to Regime Change

1. Regimes Change — the System Persists

The Ethiopian state is not defined by individual rulers but by a centralized imperial structure built on land expropriation, cultural suppression, and political exclusion — legacies established under Menelik II and perpetuated by successive governments.

Focusing solely on regime change confuses symptoms with root causes. The real adversary of the Oromo people is the imperial system itself — not merely those who temporarily control it.

2. Tactical Energy Without Strategic Vision

While outrage against a regime can generate momentum, movements without long-term vision are easily co-opted or exhausted. Slogans such as “Down with the regime!” may ignite protests but leave critical questions unanswered:

• What replaces the regime?
• Who guarantees Oromo sovereignty?
• How do we avoid betrayal once more?

Lacking strategic clarity, movements remain reactive and vulnerable to manipulation by more organized political forces.

II. Historical Lessons: 1974, 1991, and 2018

1. 1974 — The Derg: Revolution Hijacked

Oromo students and nationalists joined others in toppling the monarchy. However, after the Derg seized power, Oromo institutions like the Mecha-Tulema Association were dismantled, and their leaders persecuted. The monarchy was replaced with military absolutism — not Oromo liberation.

2. 1991 — TPLF and the Illusion of Federalism

The OLF briefly joined the transitional government, but the Tigrayan-led TPLF quickly sidelined it. A constitution promised federalism, but in practice, Oromia remained under centralized control. Autonomy was a façade.

3. 2018 — The Qeerroo Movement and Its Undermining

The youth-led Qeerroo movement sparked nationwide resistance. Yet its momentum was hijacked. Oromo opposition groups were outlawed, Qeerroo leaders persecuted, and Oromia subjected to military rule. A new regime revived an old empire in disguise.

III. What the Oromo Struggle Must Reject

1. Regime Change Is Not Liberation

From 1991 to 2018, each power transition raised Oromo hopes — only to crush them. Without structural transformation, new regimes inherit and perpetuate old systems of domination.

2. Power Transitions Without Safeguards

In both historical transitions, Oromo actors were superficially included and swiftly excluded. Neither legal protections nor transitional agreements were secured. The result was renewed repression.

As the OLF-OLA gains momentum, we must act differently — not just to be included, but to set the terms of engagement.

3. Internal Fragmentation and Personality Politics

Factionalism — over tactics, personalities, or legitimacy — has repeatedly undermined the movement. These divisions enable the state to exploit and suppress Oromo resistance.

The future requires generational unity, principled discipline, and the rise of politically mature leadership.

IV. What Must Be Done — Regardless of Regime Change

1. Declare the Goal: Full Independence for Oromia

The Oromo cause is not about reform or autonomy within Ethiopia — it is about full sovereignty over our land, people, language, economy, and political destiny.

This vision, articulated since the 1970s by the OLF, must now be reclaimed, modernized, and pursued with clarity — not hidden for short-term convenience.

2. Build Robust Oromo Institutions

Liberation requires strong institutions:

• Develop a disciplined and united liberation force (OLF-OLA or its successor) with strategic focus and internal accountability.
• Strengthen Oromo-led institutions — media, civil society, youth and women’s organizations, and diaspora networks — to sustain the national cause.
• Promote a democratic culture rooted in the gadaa system, updated for modern governance.

3. Prepare for a Post-Empire Future

To avoid repeating past mistakes, we must:

• Demand transitional justice for decades of repression, dispossession, and cultural erasure.
• Draft a roadmap for an independent Oromia — including constitutional frameworks, citizenship criteria, and economic policies.
• Establish firm red lines in engagement with Ethiopia or international actors: the right to independence is non-negotiable.

4. Build Strategic — Not Opportunistic — Alliances

Alliances must advance liberation, not delay it:

• Collaborate with other colonized or marginalized groups (e.g., Sidama, Somali, Tigray, Southern nations) on the basis of mutual recognition and shared self-determination.
• Approach Ethiopianist and Habesha elites with caution: unless they unequivocally support Oromia’s right to independence and cease anti-Oromo rhetoric, they remain adversaries.

Conclusion: The Struggle Must Outlast the Regime

Empires do not collapse when leaders fall. They adapt, reorganize, and retaliate. Without strategic clarity and institution-building, the Oromo movement risks watching yet another regime inherit the same chains.

We must shift from reaction to redefinition. From demanding inclusion to organizing for exit.

The Oromo people do not need new masters — we need freedom.

“Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. But those who learn it too late are doomed to repeat it faster.”

Let us not be late again.

References

1. Jalata, Asafa. Oromo Nationalism and the Ethiopian Discourse: The Search for Freedom and Democracy. University Press of America, 1996.
2. Hassen, Mohammed. The Oromo and the Christian Kingdom of Ethiopia. James Currey, 2015.
3. Amnesty International. “Beyond Law Enforcement: Human Rights Violations by Ethiopian Security Forces in Oromia.” May 2020.
4. Human Rights Watch. “Ethiopia: No Justice in Crackdown on Oromo Protest.” October 2019.
5. Oromo Liberation Front. “Political Program of the OLF,” 1976.
6. Amnesty International. “Political Detainees and Prisoners of Conscience,” AFR 25/001/1986.