O-Dispatch 19-H - The Oromo Struggle Is Not Merely Regime Change – Strategic Clarity for Enduring Liberation

(Published as part of the “Oromia Rising: Essays on Freedom and the Future” series. Everyone is invited to contribute. Send your contributions to bantii.qixxeessaa@gmail.com.)

By Gumaa Guddaa, MD

🎧 Listen to the Audio Version (7.5 minutes)

Introduction The Oromo struggle for self-determination stands once again at a critical juncture. Amid growing resistance to the repressive nature of Ethiopia’s current regime, a concerning trend has emerged among Oromo activists: the belief that victory lies solely in toppling the ruling administration. While opposing state brutality is fully justified, reducing the Oromo cause to mere regime change risks repeating the historical failures of 1974, 1991, and 2018.

This article argues:

1. Centering Oromo political strategy on removing regimes instead of dismantling imperial structures is a strategic misstep.
2. Historical patterns show that regime change without structural transformation only recycles oppression.
3. The Oromo struggle must remain focused on independence and institution-building, regardless of who governs Ethiopia.

I. The Pitfall of Reducing the Struggle to Regime Change

1. Regimes Change — the System Persists

The Ethiopian state is not defined by individual rulers but by a centralized imperial structure built on land expropriation, cultural suppression, and political exclusion — legacies established under Menelik II and perpetuated by successive governments.

Focusing solely on regime change confuses symptoms with root causes. The real adversary of the Oromo people is the imperial system itself — not merely those who temporarily control it.

2. Tactical Energy Without Strategic Vision

While outrage against a regime can generate momentum, movements without long-term vision are easily co-opted or exhausted. Slogans such as “Down with the regime!” may ignite protests but leave critical questions unanswered:

• What replaces the regime?
• Who guarantees Oromo sovereignty?
• How do we avoid betrayal once more?

Lacking strategic clarity, movements remain reactive and vulnerable to manipulation by more organized political forces.

II. Historical Lessons: 1974, 1991, and 2018

1. 1974 — The Derg: Revolution Hijacked

Oromo students and nationalists joined others in toppling the monarchy. However, after the Derg seized power, Oromo institutions like the Mecha-Tulema Association were dismantled, and their leaders persecuted. The monarchy was replaced with military absolutism — not Oromo liberation.

2. 1991 — TPLF and the Illusion of Federalism

The OLF briefly joined the transitional government, but the Tigrayan-led TPLF quickly sidelined it. A constitution promised federalism, but in practice, Oromia remained under centralized control. Autonomy was a façade.

3. 2018 — The Qeerroo Movement and Its Undermining

The youth-led Qeerroo movement sparked nationwide resistance. Yet its momentum was hijacked. Oromo opposition groups were outlawed, Qeerroo leaders persecuted, and Oromia subjected to military rule. A new regime revived an old empire in disguise.

III. What the Oromo Struggle Must Reject

1. Regime Change Is Not Liberation

From 1991 to 2018, each power transition raised Oromo hopes — only to crush them. Without structural transformation, new regimes inherit and perpetuate old systems of domination.

2. Power Transitions Without Safeguards

In both historical transitions, Oromo actors were superficially included and swiftly excluded. Neither legal protections nor transitional agreements were secured. The result was renewed repression.

As the OLF-OLA gains momentum, we must act differently — not just to be included, but to set the terms of engagement.

3. Internal Fragmentation and Personality Politics

Factionalism — over tactics, personalities, or legitimacy — has repeatedly undermined the movement. These divisions enable the state to exploit and suppress Oromo resistance.

The future requires generational unity, principled discipline, and the rise of politically mature leadership.

IV. What Must Be Done — Regardless of Regime Change

1. Declare the Goal: Full Independence for Oromia

The Oromo cause is not about reform or autonomy within Ethiopia — it is about full sovereignty over our land, people, language, economy, and political destiny.

This vision, articulated since the 1970s by the OLF, must now be reclaimed, modernized, and pursued with clarity — not hidden for short-term convenience.

2. Build Robust Oromo Institutions

Liberation requires strong institutions:

• Develop a disciplined and united liberation force (OLF-OLA or its successor) with strategic focus and internal accountability.
• Strengthen Oromo-led institutions — media, civil society, youth and women’s organizations, and diaspora networks — to sustain the national cause.
• Promote a democratic culture rooted in the gadaa system, updated for modern governance.

3. Prepare for a Post-Empire Future

To avoid repeating past mistakes, we must:

• Demand transitional justice for decades of repression, dispossession, and cultural erasure.
• Draft a roadmap for an independent Oromia — including constitutional frameworks, citizenship criteria, and economic policies.
• Establish firm red lines in engagement with Ethiopia or international actors: the right to independence is non-negotiable.

4. Build Strategic — Not Opportunistic — Alliances

Alliances must advance liberation, not delay it:

• Collaborate with other colonized or marginalized groups (e.g., Sidama, Somali, Tigray, Southern nations) on the basis of mutual recognition and shared self-determination.
• Approach Ethiopianist and Habesha elites with caution: unless they unequivocally support Oromia’s right to independence and cease anti-Oromo rhetoric, they remain adversaries.

Conclusion: The Struggle Must Outlast the Regime

Empires do not collapse when leaders fall. They adapt, reorganize, and retaliate. Without strategic clarity and institution-building, the Oromo movement risks watching yet another regime inherit the same chains.

We must shift from reaction to redefinition. From demanding inclusion to organizing for exit.

The Oromo people do not need new masters — we need freedom.

“Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. But those who learn it too late are doomed to repeat it faster.”

Let us not be late again.

References

1. Jalata, Asafa. Oromo Nationalism and the Ethiopian Discourse: The Search for Freedom and Democracy. University Press of America, 1996.
2. Hassen, Mohammed. The Oromo and the Christian Kingdom of Ethiopia. James Currey, 2015.
3. Amnesty International. “Beyond Law Enforcement: Human Rights Violations by Ethiopian Security Forces in Oromia.” May 2020.
4. Human Rights Watch. “Ethiopia: No Justice in Crackdown on Oromo Protest.” October 2019.
5. Oromo Liberation Front. “Political Program of the OLF,” 1976.
6. Amnesty International. “Political Detainees and Prisoners of Conscience,” AFR 25/001/1986.

O-Dispatch #20 – Ten Years of Freedom: Imagining a Thriving, Independent Oromia

(Published as part of the “Imagining The Independent State of Oromia: Essays on Freedom and the Future” series. Everyone is invited to contribute. Send your contributions to bantii.qixxeessaa@gmail.com.)

By Bantii Qixxeessaa

🎧 Listen to the Audio Version (12 minutes)

Welcome to Independent Oromia For many—both Oromo and non-Oromo—it has long been difficult to imagine an independent Oromia. We were told repeatedly that freedom was unrealistic, that Oromia was too divided, too poor, or too dependent on Ethiopia to survive on its own. This article is written for those—especially the older generation—who still seek a clear vision of what independence could look like. It offers a vivid picture of Oromia ten years after independence. This future is not a dream; it is a living, functioning, and thriving nation—one built on the back of hard struggle, resilient values, and relentless determination.

This article is written for those—especially the older generation—who still seek a clear vision of what independence could look like. It offers a vivid picture of Oromia ten years after independence. This future is not a dream; it is a living, functioning, and thriving nation—one built on the back of hard struggle, resilient values, and relentless determination.

Where Is Oromia?

Oromia is located in the Horn of Africa and shares borders with Kenya, Somalia, and South Sudan. Formerly under Ethiopian rule, the Oromo people fought for generations to reclaim their sovereignty. Today, ten years after independence, Oromia is free, peaceful, self-governing, and proud.

From Darkness to Dawn

A decade ago, Oromia stepped out from the long shadows of colonial subjugation. Now, it walks confidently in the light of sovereignty, honoring the past, remembering its heroes, and embracing the future with determination.

From Colony to Country

Under Ethiopian rule, Oromia was never treated as an equal, despite being the largest national group in the country and contributing the majority of its economy. Oromo farmers were displaced from their ancestral lands to accommodate foreign investors. Peaceful demonstrators were often met with violence, incarceration, or forced disappearance. The city of Finfinne—also known as Addis Ababa—was claimed by others, even though it lay at the heart of Oromia.

Despite the repression, the Oromo never surrendered. They rose, they organized, and they resisted. Through words, ideas, and, when needed, armed struggle, they secured their freedom.

The Struggle Behind Sovereignty

Oromia’s independence was not given—it was earned through sacrifice. Farmers defended their land and heritage with unwavering courage. Students stood unarmed in front of soldiers to demand justice. Elders preserved the truth through generations. Women organized, resisted, and rebuilt communities. Freedom fighters laid down their lives to ensure that future generations could live free.

This is why Oromia holds its freedom sacred. It is never taken for granted. It is actively protected every day.

A People-Powered Government

Today, Oromia is a democratic republic. Its leaders are chosen through free and fair elections, and the government is accountable to the people. The national constitution is a modern document deeply rooted in the traditional Gadaa system—a time-honored Oromo governance structure that promotes justice, inclusion, and respect.

The capital city, Finfinne, is a vibrant hub where tradition meets innovation. It houses national museums, universities, and government institutions that all reflect the spirit and identity of the Oromo people.

Inside Chaffee Oromia: The Heartbeat of Democracy

Ten years into independence, Chaffee Oromia—the Oromia Parliament—has become the nation's most powerful symbol of people-centered governance. Located in Finfinne, it blends the wisdom of the ancient Gadaa system with the aspirations of a modern republic.

In this vibrant legislative body, representatives from across Oromia—pastoralists, farmers, technologists, elders, women, youth—gather to shape the nation's future through open debate and participatory decision-making.

What’s Being Debated in Parliament?

Among the many debates in Chaffee Oromia, sustainable development and climate resilience is a major focus. Parliamentarians discuss how to expand solar energy infrastructure in rural areas, preserve natural treasures like the Bale Mountains and the Awash River basin, and promote environmentally sustainable agriculture. They are also working to integrate climate education into school curricula. As one representative from Guji explained, “We must honor nature the way our ancestors did—by protecting it with law and science.”

Education reform and language policy are also central to national discourse. Lawmakers are considering the introduction of a trilingual education system that includes Afaan Oromoo, English, and Swahili. The government is investing in Science, Technology, Language, and Mathematics (STLM) academies, and new curriculum initiatives aim to merge indigenous knowledge with modern digital skills. A youth representative from Hararghe declared, “Afaan Oromoo is not just our mother tongue—it is a Horn of Africa language of the future.”

Diaspora engagement and dual citizenship also feature prominently. Parliament is exploring legal frameworks to grant dual citizenship to Oromos living abroad. Proposed incentives aim to encourage diaspora investment in the homeland, while cultural exchange and ambassador programs seek to maintain strong emotional and civic ties. As the Foreign Minister aptly stated, “The diaspora didn’t just fund our freedom—they are part of our future.”

In the area of justice system modernization, legislators are working to establish mobile courts for rural areas, give legal recognition to Gadaa councils for local mediation, and ensure the full independence of the judiciary. “Justice must be blind to class, gender, and geography,” emphasized the chair of the Legal Affairs Committee.

Regarding digital sovereignty, debates are underway to create a national data center, support local AI development, expand universal internet access, and consider the ethical implications of biometric identity systems. “Digital independence is the new frontier of political independence,” said an MP from Adama.

Truth and reconciliation is another critical theme. Parliament is allocating funds to build national museums and memorials, expand trauma-informed mental health care, and formally recognize historical injustices. A survivor from Western Oromia, speaking before the parliament, reminded the nation: “We cannot walk boldly into the future without understanding our past.”

Regional diplomacy and border stability are top foreign policy priorities. Oromia’s representatives are actively working on water-sharing and trade agreements with neighboring countries. The nation is also taking a leadership role in regional peace efforts and crafting strategies to combat cross-border trafficking and instability. “Oromia is not isolated—we are a bridge of peace in the Horn of Africa,” declared the chair of the Foreign Relations Committee.

Education for All

Every child in Oromia now has access to high-quality education from early childhood through university. Instruction is offered in both Afaan Oromoo and English. The curriculum integrates science, technology, mathematics, Oromo history, and critical thinking. Institutions of higher learning in cities such as Jimma, Ambo, Dire Dawa, and Nekemte are cultivating future leaders, engineers, doctors, and thinkers.

Health and Well-Being

Oromia has built a comprehensive and equitable health care system that reaches both urban centers and remote rural areas. Hospitals and clinics are widespread, and national priorities include clean water, sanitation, universal vaccination, and robust mental health services. The country embraces a dual approach that respects both modern medicine and traditional Oromo healing practices.

A Growing, Inclusive Economy

The post-independence economy of Oromia is robust and diverse. Strategic decisions have fueled long-term, sustainable growth. Coffee remains the nation’s prized export and is enjoyed around the world. Natural resources such as gold and other minerals provide valuable income. Agricultural productivity has soared thanks to green technologies and sustainable methods. Oromia’s partnerships with Kenya, Djibouti, and other regional neighbors support trade and prosperity.

The government has prioritized major public investments, including affordable housing, clean energy infrastructure, internet access in rural areas, and a national public transportation system. As a result, jobs are plentiful, services are reliable, and hope is rising across the country.

Security Based on Trust

Oromia’s military exists to protect, not to dominate. The national police collaborate with local communities to foster peace and security. This model of trust over fear has replaced past systems of control and repression, creating a safer and more democratic society.

A Partner and Peacemaker in the World

As an active member of international organizations like the United Nations, the African Union, and IGAD, Oromia plays a constructive role in global affairs. The country is a vocal advocate on issues such as climate justice, conflict resolution, and regional trade. The Oromo diaspora continues to be a vital force, investing in the homeland, maintaining cultural ties, and contributing to the nation's development.

Culture, Language, and National Pride

Cultural rebirth is at the heart of Oromia’s national identity. Afaan Oromoo is the language of government, education, and media. National holidays like Irreecha are celebrated across the land. Martyrs and heroes of the independence struggle are honored with public ceremonies and cultural institutions. Music, poetry, storytelling, and literature are thriving, anchoring the nation's soul in its history and dreams.

Caring for the Land

Environmental protection is enshrined as a national priority. Oromia safeguards its rivers, forests, and mountains, including iconic landmarks like Bale and Awash. Farmers are trained in sustainable techniques, and clean energy initiatives—from solar to wind—are widely implemented. These efforts are guided by Gadaa principles, which emphasize harmony between people and the planet.

Justice and Equality for All

Equality is not an aspiration—it is a legal reality in Oromia. The rights of women, men, minorities, and people with disabilities are protected by law. The judiciary is transparent and independent. Gadaa councils support community conflict resolution, ensuring that justice is accessible and participatory.

A Message to the World

Oromia’s story proves that even the most marginalized people can rise, reclaim their dignity, and build a peaceful and just society. Oromos did not wait for permission. They did not surrender. They organized, they imagined, and they acted. Today, Oromia stands as a beacon of possibility and pride for all who dream of freedom.

Thank you for listening. 

O-Dispatch #19-G - Oromo Unity & Struggle: Beyond Resistance (Unity Begins with Vision)

(Published as part of the “Oromo Unity & Struggle: Essays on Freedom and the Future” series. Everyone is invited to contribute. Send your contributions to bantii.qixxeessaa@gmail.com.)

By Bantii Qixxeessaa

🎧 Listen to the Audio Version (7.5 minutes)

	For decades, the Oromo struggle has been defined by its resilience. We have resisted emperors and juntas, autocrats and occupiers. We have marched, fought, mourned, and survived. But resistance alone, however heroic, is not enough to deliver liberation.  At some point, every movement must ask: What comes after resistance?

This dispatch continues the path laid out in Oromia Dispatch #16—a call for unity based on shared principles, not empty symbolism—and responds directly to the challenge posed in Dispatch #16-A: How do we move from critique to construction? From exposing the gaps to offering frameworks that can help close them.

The answer begins with vision.

A Welcome Step Toward Unity—But Is It Enough?

On July 19, 2025, a coalition of Oromo organizations, scholars, and activists met virtually to discuss how to unify the movement. Shortly after, many of the same voices gathered again in Seattle, Washington, issuing a public statement announcing the formation of a committee to unify the Oromo struggle.

This is music to every Oromo nationalist’s ears. The very act of coming together to talk unity is cause for hope—and should be celebrated.

But we must be honest: while unity around resisting the current regime is a critical achievement, the absence—or, if there is one, the lack of a publicly stated—post-Abiy vision is deeply troubling.

This moment echoes what Oromia Dispatch #16 warned us about: symbolic unity without strategic depth. A call for unity that does not define its destination is not a roadmap—it’s a mirage. Even more concerning, there is no clarity on whether the united effort seeks to preserve the current multinational federation, create a transitional government to draft a new social contract, or prepare the ground for full self-determination by each nation and nationality.

This vagueness is not neutral. It is a recipe for disaster.

From Protest to Purpose: The Cost of Directionless Resistance

Let us be clear: bringing down Abiy Ahmed and dismantling the Prosperity Party is necessary—but it is not a strategy. It is a tactic within a larger struggle. And unless the Oromo movement defines what replaces the current regime, others will define it for us—just as they did in 1991, in 2018, and countless times before.

In Dispatch #16-A, a reader rightly challenged us to move beyond critique and offer practical, structured proposals. This dispatch answers that call by asserting that the most urgent next step is not simply uniting resistance but unifying around a shared political vision.

What Does “Beyond Resistance” Require?

Following the roadmap introduced in Dispatch #16-A, the following elements must now become operational priorities for any serious Oromo unity project:

1.      Establish a Shared Destination

• Is our movement calling for federal reform, full independence, or a transitional governing process?
• The minimum program must affirm self-determination—including the option of independence—as a non-negotiable right.
• Avoiding this question for the sake of superficial consensus only delays inevitable fractures.

2.      Build Institutions in the Present

• Begin constructing self-governance structures in liberated zones.
• Promote community-led systems of justice, education, and security.
• Demonstrate now what a free Oromia would look like—not after the war, but during the struggle.

3.      Coordinate Across Legal and Armed Struggles

As Dispatch #16-A outlines, legal barriers in Ethiopia prevent open collaboration between parties and armed groups. Still, strategic unity is possible through:

• Role separation without vision disunity
• A diaspora-based coordination body that ensures narrative coherence, which I am glad to report has been announced in the press release of the newly formed coalition
• Shared messaging rooted in Article 39 of the Ethiopian Constitution, which guarantees the right to self-determination

4.      Launch Political Education Initiatives

• Prepare a generation of youth not just to oppose—but to govern.
• Use Gadaa principles to instill accountability, justice, and participatory leadership.
• Political education will inoculate the movement against internal manipulation and factionalism.

5.      Clarify Our Narrative Internationally

·         Advocate for the Oromo struggle as a decolonial, democratic movement, not a regional rebellion.

·         Position all wings of the movement—armed, political, civic—as aligned with internationally recognized rights frameworks.

Learning from Our Own Lessons

We are not short on examples. Oromia Dispatch #16 recounted how unity efforts like ULFO and "Gaaddisa Hoggansa Oromoo" failed—not due to lack of will, but lack of a shared strategic vision. We cannot afford to repeat this.

What would happen if the Abiy regime collapsed tomorrow? Do we know what comes next? Is there a transitional plan? Who will lead? How will power be shared? These are not academic questions—they are existential ones.

The Time for Symbolism Is Over

Resistance without vision leads to chaos. Unity without a common goal leads to fragmentation. The Oromo movement now stands at a historic juncture: either solidify its momentum into a system or repeat the cycle of collapse that has haunted us for decades.

Let unity not be something we announce in press releases—but something we build into our structures, messaging, and operations.

Let our resistance give birth not only to opposition—but to Oromo self-governance, justice, and dignity.

Conclusion: Vision Is Victory

This dispatch is not the end of the conversation—it is a continuation of a call:

• From critique to construction
• From symbolic unity to coordinated struggle
• From resistance to revolutionary vision

If Dispatch #16 was the call to ground unity in principles, and 16-A was the framework for action, then this dispatch is the bridge between them: the message that no unity effort will succeed without a clear, shared vision of the post-Abiy future.

We have resisted long enough.
Now we must build.
We must define.
We must unite—with purpose.

Let this be the moment Oromia rises not just in defiance, but in direction.

 

O-Dispatch #19-F: The Problem with “Independence as a Last Resort” — A Response to the Gradualist Case

(Published as part of the “Oromia Rising: Essays on Freedom and the Future” series. Everyone is invited to contribute. Send your contributions to bantii.qixxeessaa@gmail.com.)

By Bantii Qixxeessaa

🎧 Listen to the Audio Version (8 minutes)

One of our readers recently wrote: “Some strongly advocate for reframing the Oromo liberation movement toward the progressive realization of independence, only as a last resort, through democratization of the existing multinational federation. This approach emphasizes defending the current federation, preserving past gains, and pursuing unresolved demands peacefully. This position deserves critical examination.” I couldn’t agree more. This argument—positioning independence as a “last resort,” only achievable through gradual democratization within Ethiopia’s multinational federation—has re-emerged in recent conferences and political discourse. Proponents of this approach argue for preserving the current federation, defending its gains, and pursuing Oromo demands peacefully and constitutionally.

Though presented as pragmatic and peaceful, this perspective warrants rigorous scrutiny—especially in the context of the Oromo people's lived experience.

The Theoretical Appeal—And the Assumptions It Conceals

At face value, the gradualist argument seems responsible and rational. After all, who wouldn’t prefer reform to revolution, or peace to conflict?

However, this logic rests on a series of questionable assumptions:

• That the Ethiopian federation is real, functional, and reformable
• That democratization from within this structure is possible and sustainable
• That Oromo aspirations can be genuinely addressed within the current constitutional framework
• That the federation is something worth preserving, rather than interrogating

These assumptions are not neutral. They reflect a normative bias toward Ethiopian unity—often ignoring the systematic betrayal and suppression of Oromo rights under this very federation.

 The Empirical Record: A Federation in Name Only

What does Oromo history tell us?

• The Ethiopian constitution guarantees self-determination and secession in theory—but criminalizes their pursuit in practice.
• Oromia’s supposed autonomy exists on paper, while the central state maintains control over its resources, security, and governance.
• Peaceful engagement—from electoral participation to protest—has been met with violence, co-optation, and legal manipulation.

Oromos have already walked the gradualist path—through the OPDO, legal political parties like the OFC, and civic participation. The result? Persistent grievances: land alienation, political marginalization, cultural repression, and militarization. The “gains” of federalism are largely symbolic.

Why “Last Resort” Thinking Is Strategically Dangerous

Treating independence as a last resort presents several strategic and psychological challenges:

• Shifts the burden of proof to liberation advocates, granting the system endless opportunities to “reform” despite repeated failures
• Delays critical preparation, including institution-building, economic planning, and consensus development for independence
• Sows confusion, diluting public understanding of the movement’s ultimate goal
• Instills fear, portraying independence as dangerous or unrealistic unless all other avenues are exhausted

But those avenues have been exhausted. The choice is no longer between peace and conflict, or federation and chaos—it is between continued subjugation and the pursuit of genuine sovereignty.

Historical Lessons: The Myth of Successful Gradualism

History provides sobering examples of what happens when oppressed groups pursue autonomy through failing federations:

• 1.      Oromo Experience (Ethiopia): Efforts to work within the federation—through OPDO, OFC, OLF, or civic activism—have consistently ended in repression and betrayal. The federalism-first approach has failed to deliver autonomy or justice.
• 2.      Biafra (Nigeria): The Igbo pursued greater autonomy within Nigeria, but faced pogroms that led to secession and civil war. Decades later, their demands remain unresolved.
• 3.      Catalonia (Spain): Catalan leaders sought autonomy for decades. When they attempted a democratic vote for independence in 2017, Spain responded with legal persecution. Catalonia remains politically paralyzed.
• 4.      Tibet (China): Tibetan leaders once sought autonomy under Chinese rule. The result: delays, internal division, and deeper repression. Tibet remains under tight control.

1.      These examples show that gradualist approaches often embolden central states, stall liberation movements, and deepen oppression.

Peace Is Not the Opposite of Independence

A false dichotomy haunts this debate: that independence threatens peace. In reality, for the Oromo, it may be the precondition for peace.

Peace is not simply the absence of violence—it is the presence of justice, dignity, and self-rule. Independence is not a call to war. It is a call to build a political order where peace becomes possible.

Those who advocate for sovereignty are not flag-waving radicals; they are principled realists who understand that a people cannot be free within a system designed to suppress them.

Clarity Over Conditionality

This is not a rejection of reform or peaceful resolution. It is a recognition that, in the Oromo context, those avenues have been weaponized to delay—not deliver—justice.

Thus, the movement must assert:

• Independence is not a fallback. It is a rightful goal.
• It is not the end of the struggle, but the framework for its success.
• It is not a threat to peace, but its path.

The Oromo deserve more than survival under a decaying federation. They deserve a future rooted in sovereignty, dignity, and agency.

The Bottom Line

The “last resort” approach to independence fails on both historical and strategic grounds. 

It:

• Lacks real-world precedents of success in postcolonial or multinational states
• Demobilizes the movement by confusing its goals and delaying momentum
• Empowers a failing system by giving it veto power over its own dismantling

By contrast, successful liberation movements declare independence early—as a moral and strategic anchor, while adapting their methods to context.

The Path Forward

The movement must act with urgency and clarity. That means:

• Framing independence as a legitimate, necessary, and immediate objective
• Building political, institutional, and economic structures for a sovereign Oromia—now, not later
• Engaging with both allies and critics from a position of vision and conviction

The choice is not between independence and peace. It’s between meaningful progress and stagnation disguised as patience.

Let us choose sovereignty. Let us write the next chapter of our history—in our own words, on our own terms.

 

O-Dispatch #19-E: Independence Is Not Enough – Avoiding the Pitfalls of Post-Liberation Failure

(Published as part of the “Oromia Rising: Essays on Freedom and the Future” series. Everyone is invited to contribute. Send your contributions to bantii.qixxeessaa@gmail.com.)

By Bantii Qixxeessaa

🎧 Listen to the Audio Version (15 minutes)

A common argument raised against the Oromo liberation struggle for independence is this: “Even if Oromia becomes independent, how do we know it won’t end up like South Sudan, Eritrea, or Somalia—mired in authoritarianism, internal conflict, or state collapse?” This is a sobering question. It deserves more than a dismissal. It demands reflection, honesty, and a credible roadmap. There is truth in the concern. History confirms that independence alone does not guarantee peace, freedom, or democracy. There is truth in the concern. History confirms that independence alone does not guarantee peace, freedom, or democracy. South Sudan gained independence in 2011 after a long and bloody struggle, only to descend into civil war and political dysfunction.

Eritrea fought heroically for sovereignty, only to replace foreign domination with domestic repression. Somalia collapsed into stateless chaos after the fall of its authoritarian regime. In all three cases, the post-independence vision was either unclear, co-opted, or completely abandoned.

But this is only one side of the story.

There are also powerful examples of nations that won independence and successfully built stable, democratic, and sovereign states. Timor-Leste, after decades of brutal occupation, transitioned into a pluralistic democracy with repeated peaceful elections. Namibia emerged from South African apartheid rule to become one of Africa’s most stable democracies. Slovenia, which broke away from Yugoslavia in the early 1990s, managed a peaceful transition and integrated swiftly into the European Union. Botswana – Maintained multiparty democracy and rule of law since 1966. Cape Verde – Peacefully transitioned to multiparty democracy and maintained political stability.  India – Despite enormous diversity and challenges, India preserved electoral democracy since independence. These cases, and others not mentioned here, remind us that independence, when coupled with visionary leadership, institution-building, and inclusive governance, can yield not only sovereignty—but peace, democracy, and prosperity.

The point is clear: independence is not a guarantee of success, but neither is it a path to inevitable failure. The outcomes depend on preparation, political culture, and strategic execution.

So the question is not whether independence is worth pursuing, but whether we are willing to do the hard work to ensure it leads to a just and thriving Oromia. For Oromia, the lesson is not to be discouraged by the odds, but to be disciplined by them. The struggle must not end with independence, it must start with building the foundations of the state we want to live in.

Independence Alone Does Not Guarantee Peace, Freedom, or Democracy

The Oromo struggle is not merely about redrawing borders. It is about reclaiming power from an empire that has long denied the Oromo people the right to govern themselves. That goal will only be fulfilled when the new Oromia is built on justice, freedom, and democratic accountability.

The failure of other post-independence states was not that they chose sovereignty, but that they did not adequately plan what to do with it once they had it. For them Independence became an endpoint instead of a beginning. Oromia must learn from their experience.

---

What Went Wrong with these movement, later states? Here as some Key Lessons.

1. Lack of Political Consensus: South Sudan’s liberation forces fractured along ethnic (the Dinka and the Nuer) and personal rivalries (Salva Kiir Mayardit and Riek Machar) after independence. Their unity was wartime-deep but not nation-deep.
2. Weak Institutions: Eritrea’s government was centralized around a single figure, Isaias Afwerki. In the absence of independent institutions, authoritarianism became inevitable. The concentration of power in one leader, the failure to implement a democratic transition after independence, the systematic suppression of dissent, the militarization of governance, and the entrenchment of one-party rule without internal accountability made authoritarianism not just likely—but the logical outcome.
3. Militarization of Politics: In both South Sudan and Eritrea, there was no planned and inclusive transition to civilian-led, democratic governance. Instead, armed movements transitioned into ruling elites without civilian oversight, perpetuating a culture of command over consent.
4. Failure to Transition from Liberation to Governance: If a liberation movement is undemocratic in its internal organization and decision-making during the struggle, it is likely to reproduce those same authoritarian habits once it comes to power. In both the South Sudanese and Eritrean liberation struggles, the movements failed to democratize internally and instead carried autocratic tendencies into statehood.
5. Neglect of Reconciliation and Inclusion: Neither South Sudan nor Eritrea implemented meaningful, independent truth, reconciliation, or justice commissions after achieving independence. The absence of such mechanisms played a significant role in their post-liberation crises. Somalia’s fragmentation was deepened by the exclusion of key clans and groups, undermining the legitimacy of national institutions.
6. No Economic Vision: Liberation without economic development leads to frustration, elite capture, and failed expectations. neither South Sudan nor Eritrea had well-developed or realistic economic development plans when they gained independence. This absence of clear, inclusive, and sustainable economic strategies significantly contributed to post-independence frustration, elite capture, and ultimately state failure or stagnation.

---

How Can the Oromo Movement Avoid These pitfalls?

1. Start Nation-Building Before Statehood: Nation-building must begin during the struggle—not after victory. This means cultivating democratic norms, inclusive leadership, institutional habits, and a shared civic vision now, so Oromia rises not just as a state, but as a nation rooted in justice, dignity, and self-rule.

We can begin this process by:

a.       Democratizing the Movement Itself: Hold inclusive consultations across Oromo political organizations. Practice internal democracy—rotate leadership, hold free elections, and foster open debate without branding dissent as betrayal. A democratic state cannot emerge from undemocratic movements.

b.      Developing a Shared Vision: Draft a People’s Charter or “Oromo Covenant” through public forums that articulates the future state's core values (democracy, justice, equality), defines citizen rights and responsibilities, and establishes unifying symbols and narratives.

c.       Building and Strengthen Oromo Institutions: Create shadow institutions like diaspora parliaments, advisory councils, and grassroots dispute-resolution platforms. Launch Oromo think tanks and development organizations to shape post-independence governance. Sustainable nations rely on institutions—not just leaders.

d.      Drafting a Transitional Roadmap: Prepare a clear, inclusive plan for transferring power post-independence. Include a transitional charter, a timeline for elections, constitution-making, and institution-building. Planning now prevents chaos later.  Such planning helps prevent power grabs and chaotic improvisation during a fragile transition.

e.       Modeling Inclusive Leadership and Conflict Resolution: Initiate dialogues among Oromos across regions, religions, and political lines to build trust and reconciliation. Use traditional Oromo mechanisms (e.g., Gadaa) and modern legal norms to manage disputes. Promote leaders guided by integrity, not allegiance. Independence cannot bring stability without reconciliation and trust.

2. Ensure Civilian Supremacy: Armed resistance must not give rise to a ruling military caste. Civilian political authority must guide Oromia’s future. If the Oromo liberation movement seeks to build a just and democratic state, it must begin now to ensure that guns return to the barracks—and governance rests with the people through ballots, not bullets. Civilian supremacy—the principle that elected or accountable civilian leadership controls the military—is essential to preventing post-independence authoritarianism. To uphold this principle, the movement must take deliberate steps during the struggle to clearly define and separate military and political roles.
3. Forge a National Covenant: Develop a pre-independence social contract that binds Oromo regions, parties, and communities together in shared purpose. Forging a National Covenant is a strategic and unifying step that helps consolidate internal cohesion, articulate a collective vision, and lay the foundation for inclusive governance after independence. It transforms aspiration into agreement, agreement into accountability, and accountability into a shared destiny. The Covenant offers a moral foundation and unifying framework that can endure political transitions and guide the creation of a democratic Oromia. By ensuring all major segments of Oromo society have a stake in it, the Covenant becomes both a political backbone and a public promise. Embedded in the movement’s strategy, it serves as the compass for nation-building—before and after independence.
4. Guarantee Inclusivity for All Peoples: Oromia will be home to non-Oromo minorities, and any future vision must ensure their protection and full citizenship. Guaranteeing inclusivity—especially for non-Oromo communities—is both a moral imperative and a strategic necessity for legitimacy, stability, and democratic state-building. This is not a concession; it is a declaration of confidence in a democratic future. By ensuring that all residents feel a genuine sense of belonging, the Oromo movement lays the foundation for a stronger, more unified, and enduring nation.
5. Prepare a Transitional Charter and Leadership Framework: Governance must not be improvised. A clear roadmap for the first five years—outlining institutions, timelines, elections, and reforms—is essential. Preparing a Transitional Charter and Leadership Framework ensures that post-independence Oromia is not vulnerable to instability, power struggles, or elite capture. It signals maturity, foresight, and credibility—both to the Oromo people and the international community. Such a framework provides the structure, stability, and legitimacy Oromia will need during its most fragile moment: immediately after independence. States should not be improvised—they must be deliberately designed.
6. Establish a Truth and Justice Commission: Addressing historical wounds through transparent, accountable processes is essential for justice and healing—not revenge. A Truth and Justice Commission (TJC) is vital for legitimacy and nation-building, especially in Oromia, where the people have endured decades of systemic violence, dispossession, and betrayal. Crucially, the groundwork for such a commission must be laid before independence to ensure swift and credible implementation afterward. Truth and justice must not wait—they must be integral to the liberation itself. By planning now, the Oromo movement demonstrates that it seeks not just power, but moral legitimacy and national healing. In doing so, it breaks the cycle of revenge and paves the way for a democratic future rooted in memory, accountability, and reconciliation.
7. Develop Economic Sovereignty: Plan now for food security, youth employment, regional trade, and resource equity, so that political independence translates into real, lived freedom. Economic sovereignty is essential to ensuring that Oromia’s future is not symbolic but substantive. True sovereignty is not just a flag or a border, it is the ability to feed, employ, and empower your people. Building the foundations of a dignified life must be central to the liberation struggle. The Oromo movement must treat economic development not as a post-independence task, but as a core pillar of liberation itself.

The Cost of Caution vs. the Risk of Action

Opponents of independence argue that avoiding these risks is reason enough to remain under the Ethiopian so called federation. But Ethiopia’s own record is one of repression, fragmentation, and crisis. Remaining in the current system is not a guarantee of peace or prosperity, it is a guarantee of stagnation, dependency, and continued repression and subjugation.

The Oromo people are not doomed to repeat the mistakes of others. But they must learn from them, seriously, humbly, and strategically. The goal is not just a new flag. It is a new political culture, rooted in the principles the Oromo struggle has long proclaimed: freedom, equality, justice, and self-rule.

Independence is only the first chapter—but without it, the rest of the story cannot be written.

Opponents of Oromo independence often argue that its advocates are fixated on symbols—new flags, new borders—without a plan for what comes next. Nothing could be further from the truth. The call for independence is not about retreating into nationalism; it is about unlocking the possibility of justice, peace, democracy, and dignity—none of which have ever been guaranteed under the current imperial structure.

The reality is this: for the Oromo people, there can be no meaningful next chapter without the first one. There can be no justice without sovereignty. No peace without self-rule. No democracy without the freedom to determine our own future. Independence is not the end goal—it is the beginning of a better path. The Oromo movement must and does look beyond independence, but it also recognizes that independence is the necessary foundation on which every future reform must rest.

We are not asking for isolation. We are demanding inclusion—on our own terms, in our own voice, in our own land.